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Is it possible to make a few quid on golf betting? – Part 2

Is it possible to make a few quid on golf betting? – Part 2

In the last blog post we looked at the possibility of making a few quid on golf betting. After doing a little bit of Googling on the subject I discovered a website called This website had a systematic approach to selecting winners from the field.

Using metrics based on current form, past record on the type of course and the skills required to do well on that particular course (for example a links or parkland course). The site then generates a list of 25 players and ranks them based on probability on what they believe are the most important attributes to do well in a given tournament.

I listed the top 5 recommendations from from last weeks tournaments for both the European and PGA Tours. I am going to have a look back at the sites 25 picks and see how they fared.

PGA Tour - OHL Classic At Mayakoba

This tournament was won by Charley Hoffman on -17. I had a quick look back to see if Charley was featured in the top 25, he was in fact listed at number 21.

To keep it simple if you had placed €1 each way on the entire list of 25 golfers it would have cost you €2 x 25 = €50. A place is paid out on a golfer finishing in the top 5. Looking down through the list, 8 players missed the cut, which worryingly included Charles Howell III who was tipped as most likely to win.

Their list in fairness though did have the winner Charley Hoffman who was a generous 66/1. Therefore that would have returned for you €66 plus a quarter of the odds for the place giving you a further €16.50, plus your €2 stake back giving you a grand total of €84.50.

I then looked back over the list of 25 again to check for any golfers who placed in the top 5. Jerry Kelly finished in an outright 5th place. Kelly was a generous 80/1 with the bookies, so a quarter of his odds for the place is a return of €20 plus your €2 stake back giving you a total of €22.00.

As Jim Bowen used to say on Bullseye, here’s what you could have won, €84.50 from Charley Hoffman and a further €22.00 from Jerry Kelly, giving you a grand total of €106.50, less your €50 stake gives you a return of €56.50 or 113% return, which ain’t bad at all.

European Tour - Turkish Airlines Open

Straight away looking at the full list of 25 picks from for the Turkish Airlines Open you can see the winner Brooks Koepka is omitted from the list. However there does appear to be more consistency with five picks in the top 10.

In total there were three golfers who placed in the top 5 on the list, namely Ian Poulter who finished second, Henrik Stenson (3rd) and Danny Willett (4th).

Their odds were Poulter (25/1), Stenson (12/1) and Danny Willett (66/1). Applying the same logic as with the OHL Classic At Mayakoba and assuming we put €1 each way on the entire list of 25 golfers we would have got back €8.25 on Ian Poulter, €5 on Henrik Stenson and €18.50 on Danny Willett giving you a total of €31.75, which is a loss of €18.25 on your initial stake of €50.

In summary if you add both events together you would have placed a €100 and returned €138.25, up €38.25 or 38%. It’s too early to draw any conclusions from the first week but it does look like you need one of the players to win out of the combined list of 50 players.

The Turkish Airlines Open had a stronger field and featured more top 10 finishes with lower odds. You might find better value in a tournament where the bigger players are not featuring as much which, this was the case at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba last week. The list of 25 players selected by had on average much higher odds.

We will review this week’s tournaments next week to see how we get on. – 25 Picks for the OHL Classic At Mayakoba

1 Charles Howell III – Missed Cut
2 Harris English – T37
3 Russell Knox – T37
4 Andrew Svoboda – Missed Cut 
5 Tony Finau – T7 
6 Alex Cejka – T16 
7 Rory Sabbatini – T56
8 Steven Alker – Missed Cut
9 Ben Martin – Missed Cut
10 Robert Streb – T37
11 David Hearn – T16 
12 Daniel Summerhays – T15
13 Chris Stroud – T23
14 Colt Knost – T37
15 Fabian Gomez – T23
16 Ken Duke – T9 
17 Scott Brown – T62
18 Chad Campbell – Missed Cut
19 Justin Hicks – Missed Cut
20 Carl Pettersson – Missed Cut 
21 Charley Hoffman - 1 
22 Ryan Armour – Missed Cut 
23 Scott Piercy – T16
24 Jerry Kelly - 5
25 Billy Hurley III – T23 – 25 Picks for the Turkish Airlines Open

1 George Coetzee - T55
2 Alexander Levy - T11
3 Henrik Stenson - 3
4 Jamie Donaldson – T19 
5 Sergio Garcia – T25 
6 Ross Fisher – T25 
7 Lee Westwood - T8
8 Marcel Siem – T8
9 Thongchai Jaidee – T36 
10 Marc Warren – T39
11 Jonas – T25 
12 Stephen Gallacher – T15 
13 Ian Poulter - 2
14 Victor Dubuisson – T15 
15 Darren Fichardt - T39
16 Peter Uihlein – T11 
17 Martin Kaymer – T60
18 Thorbjorn Olesen - 72
19 Tommy Fleetwood – T32
20 Mikko Ilonen –T64 
21 Danny Willett – T4 
22 Nicolas Colsaerts – T52 
23 Joost Luiten – T25
24 Bernd Wiesberger – T52 
25 Pablo Larrazabal – T52

By Dan Cole

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